January means resolutions, heavy gym/dating/holiday marketing campaigns, and endless “7 social media trends for 2016” type blog and news posts. But does anyone stop to consider whether last year’s predictions came true? Are these types of posts really worth reading (or writing)? And how original are they – if you’ve read one, have you read them all? We decided to do what we do, and apply some quantitative and qualitative analytical rigour to answering these questions. We analysed social media trend and predictions posts from over a hundred media outlets, agencies, consultancies, research houses, and social software providers, to see just how much insight there really was. This included the top UK social, creative, PR and media shops, plus selected others. We looked at their 2015 and their 2016 posts, and assessed them for: Originality (how different were their forecasts to others) Accuracy (how many of their 2015 forecasts came true)? Not all produced this type of content (at least publicly). We found about a third to be chancing their crystal balls. The results were striking. Originality: Two thirds of 2016 predictions were repeated across more than 70% of the authors. That’s even more similar than last year, which saw closer to 50% of predictions shared across 70% of authors Accuracy: Around 60% of 2015 predictions can be said to have ‘come true’. However, many of these predictions were an evolutionary, multi-year phenomenon (e.g. mobile social usage), so can be regarded as pretty safe bets. Predictions of things which could actually occur solely within the 12 month timeframe (e.g. a service being acquired or rocketing in popularity) saw c.30% accuracy Are there notable differences in the ‘good’ predictors? Those who were more accurate in 2015 didn’t share many traits. The only discernible themes identifiable are that they typically pick fewer predictions, and they tend to publish themselves, rather than on third party sites Wisdom in crowds? The frequency a prediction is repeated within the cohort does improve the likelihood somewhat of it coming true, but this correlates to multi-year evolutionary type predictions which are a) ‘easier’ and b) have some preceding evidence for their veracity. They’re safe bets to make, essentially Interesting asides from trawling all of this future gazing: In 2015 predicting significant user growth across platforms was notably popular, yet has dried up in 2016. Which is amusing considering this was one of the more accurate predictions made, and many less accurate ones are being repeated for 2016! Predicting the growth of content was most universally popular both last year and this. It is worth reflecting whether the popularity is as much to do with it serving the interests of a good number of the predictors than any other claim The most notable ‘wrong’ prediction, yet seeing repetition heavily for 2016, is the advent of mass virtual reality adoption. Given the providers of these platforms, such as Oculus Rift, don’t envisage it yet being mass, this is puzzling Based on the above data, the most effective use of your trend reading time is to stop after reading two posts on the topic. You are more than 90% likely to have read two thirds of all the predictions being made across those posts. To have a good chance of reading more than four-fifths of the predictions being made requires much more reading, given the concentration of a relatively small proportion of authors as originators of the more novel predictions. Plus, if a post has few predictions, read it (probably good advice for life) Worth noting is that the traditional consultancy businesses, who have increasingly moved into digital marketing provision in recent years, don’t produce these types of forecasts. Perhaps reflecting their background, they contribute predictions only within the wrapper of heavy duty research. Also, credit to the Wall blog, who did assess whether or not their 2015 predictions came true, and Ogilvy, who opened 2016 predictions with a review of their 2015 ones… Conclusion: Trend predictions for social media are only moderately likely to come true, despite the high degree of overlap between forecasters. Highly original forecasts don’t significantly reduce the accuracy, when judged like-for-like with predictions which come true within the same time frame. The best thing which could happen is a) for predictors to start including their success stats from the previous year, b) assess their own originality, and c) for people to move towards only predicting multi-year phenomenon, where everyone appears to both share some degree of consensus, and achieve some degree of accuracy. Which is what the rest of the business world has known for some time, it appears… Note 1: We specifically haven’t named good/bad performers, because the point here is about the content trope as a whole, not specific parties within it. Note 2: The sample size is sizeable enough to draw some meaningful conclusions, but not to deliver statistically significant accuracy. Note 3: There is some inherent subjectivity in the decision as to whether something ‘came true or not’ last year, as well as how we’ve clustered recommendations. #data #predictions #socialmedia #trends

In Sarah’s last productivity hacks article, she gave you a few of our favourite tricks of the trade to be more productive during the day. Now it’s time for the Google Chrome extensions addition. For those of you who aren’t familiar with the Google Chrome Extensions Store, you’re missing out on a veritable treasure trove of internet gadgetry. Extensions are basically mini-programs which work in your Chrome browser to give added functionality – they can be built by Google itself, your favourite websites or developers who just want to help people out – and they’re super helpful shortcuts to getting stuff done (our favourite thing at OneFifty). Here are 8 of our favourites… 1. Momentum Momentum replaces your boring old ‘new tab’ screen with a motivational dashboard to help you get through the day – it’s popular with the team at OneFifty because it’s got motivational quotes, gorgeous background photos and even has a little to-do list for you, which is great, unless, like us, you use Todoist (read all about how we love it here) 2. Lastpass If I achieve anything with this blog, it’s persuading you to take out a LastPass subscription (free or paid). I get nerdy about having different passwords for everything and making them super secure, which means it’s impossible to remember any of them. With LastPass, it saves them all down for you (securely) and you only need 1 mega-long master password to access all of them. The extension then securely fills in your data on websites without having to rifle through your memory – it genuinely saves so much time and effort with the added bonus of keeping your accounts more secure. LOVE. 3. Google docs quick create As champions of the Google corporate system, we open up a LOT of new google docs every day. Presentation? Throw it on Google slides. Call notes? Share them with your colleagues on a Google doc. You get the picture. This nifty extension quickens up the process and lets you open a new document up directly from your browser bar. Saves you a few clicks and much time. 4. Google Keep Another ode to how much we love Google – the Keep extension enables you to write a new Google Keep Note attached to the page or document you’re working on at that moment – great for taking quick notes during a Google hangout or when you’re looking at a website, and don’t want to move tabs or use the fancy features of a Google doc. 5. Grammarly Without being extreme, Grammarly makes life worth living (okay, maybe a bit extreme). This nifty extension checks your grammar and spelling on emails, documents and social media as you type then gives you tips and hints as to how you can improve your writing, use better grammar or change your choice of word. It’s no replacement for learning the proper use of ‘less v. fewer’ or ‘you’re v. your’ BUT it will save you from an embarrassing email mistake to a client. 6. Nimbus A recommendation from sports-analogy loving Dan, Nimbus helps you take screenshots and screen record without having to hold down an awkward combination of buttons on your keyboard, which inevitably you get wrong and end up closing all your windows or screenshotting the whole screen. It’s the little things. 7. Google Calendar You’ll never miss another meeting when you’ve got the Google Calendar extension right there in your browser bar telling you that it’s 4 minutes or 18 hours until your next meeting. Also super helpful to click on and check what you’ve got coming up, without having to open your calendar up on a new tab or your phone. 8. Tabby Cat So technically this isn’t a productivity hack, but it is my favourite extension. Every time you open a new tab, you get a little pet cat to enjoy, complete with accessories that you ‘earn’ over time and a totally random but adorable name. It genuinely brings me so much joy during the workday, and everyone knows a joyful team produce better work. Download it and enjoy, you won’t regret it (unless you’re a dog person). Let me know if you install any of these or have any recommendations! #googlechrome #hacks #productivity

Instagram’s algorithm: why do I see what I see on Instagram? Algorithms have become as much a part of our lives as our daily Gin O’Clock and much like Gin O’Clock, their importance is often overlooked. They help us to choose which Netflix show to binge-watch next and keep showing us that one pair of shoes that we are desperately trying not to splurge on. If you want to know about the history of algorithms or how they work, you can get yourself up to speed here.  Much to the annoyance but understanding of all of us here at One Fifty, social networks are notoriously vague about the specifics of their algorithms.  We decided to put Instagram to the test. The Experiment We created three Instagram accounts, all made on the same device, with all other factors the same, apart from their gender.  We created a female, male and control (as we were measuring gender as a variable), let’s call them Michelle, Barack and Bo.  For seven days, we completed the same 5 actions across all three accounts: We followed the first 10 recommended females on Michelle’s, the first 10 males on Barack’s, and the top 10 local (London) accounts on Bo’s. In each case, we liked the first 10 ‘female/male/local’ posts that appeared on the feed. We recorded the top 10 feed posts for each account. We screenshotted the explore page. We recorded the first 10 recommended accounts, no matter what they were. This gave us lots of lovely data to analyse, and plenty of food for thought. So, what did we find? I hear you ask. At the end of the 7 day period, we had seen something really interesting happen. The algorithm, (you can call him Al), was relatively more sensitive to certain accounts that we followed, appearing to place a heavier importance weighting on these accounts. In other words, accounts that are recommended to us or the content that we see on our feeds, is often not entirely representative of our actions. A little confusing, I know. Let’s break it down. Even though we only followed accounts that were recommended to us, it was clear that Al was more sensitive when we followed certain accounts, over others. For example, for both Barack and Bo, the recommended list quickly became saturated with specific topic categories of accounts, such as Korean pop-stars and LGBT+ community accounts. What we saw on day 5… This was surprising, as despite these genres making up an extremely small proportion of the accounts Barack and Bo followed, they seemed to influence their entire recommended lists for the duration of the experiment. Does this mean that these accounts could have been added in by Al to test the user’s interests? We think so. Al is likely throwing these recommendations into the ring as a way to test the waters. If these ‘test’ accounts are followed, they become a strong indicator that the user is interested in that genre as a whole, and that they should be shown more of this type of content. This is a key reason that individual posts, rather than accounts, tend to go viral on TikTok. It’s all about falling into the #fyp trend of the moment, a theme that users are being shown due to them liking other similar ‘test’ content. For brands aiming to get onto people’s feeds, these themes are important to think about. The experiment continues…. Unsurprisingly, as we women like to take our time, we did not instantly see the same results with Michelle’s account. We decided to continue the experiment for a few more days to see if a similar pattern occurred. The answer is, kind of. Whilst we didn’t see the same really obvious pattern coming through, the recommended accounts began to have extremely low follower counts, and all seemed to be followed by one account (@juliteworthy), who we had followed a few days earlier. It seems similarly to the ‘test’ genres, Al assumed that Michelle was in/or interested in Julite’s squad and then proceeded to recommend the other squad members to her. This is something that you may have noticed with B2B accounts. If you were to follow Alex, Al may assume that you work at One Fifty, and then recommend you to follow me (a recommendation I can get behind.) I know what you’re thinking, what does this mean for me/my business? Find your Korean pop star (Aka, your niche). Engage with other accounts in your niche. This will likely result in Al steering users that engage with similar accounts, to yours. Be something to someone, not nothing to everyone. The bottom line… Knowing how algorithms work can really help you to love them, and them (Al) to love you back.

Appropriately enough in 2017’s Brexit Britain, the popularity of the iconically British Gin and Tonic owes it’s origins to the imposition of tariffs on foreign spirits (back in the 17th century)… These days, however, there are other factors driving the popularity of the spirit which we’re exploring in March, as part of our year identifying and living social trends . Commercially, 2016 was a record year for British gin exports with overseas sales reaching half a billion pounds , up 12% (or £53 million) from 2015, and up 32% in the past 5 years. According to The Wine and Spirit Trade Association , 44 new distilleries opened last year and 100 new licenses have been issued in the last two years. Digital hype has been growing at an even faster rate in the past two years. Gin or #gin has been mentioned 23k times on news, blogs or forums last year. That’s +45% compared to 2015. Looking at other spirits, “gin” was outperforming volumes of discussion in 2016. With 650k mentions on Twitter, the social buzz around gin is 6 times the size of tequila, 4 times the size of whisky and 0.7 times the size of vodka mentions in 2016. We also estimate #gin was used 102k times on Instagram last year. Two clear topics/ themes dominated: Gin cocktails & branded bottles. By number of followers whisky remains the number one spirit on Twitter, but gin brand accounts have become increasingly popular. Established distilleries like the SW Distillery, Portobello Gin or Caorunn Gin have enjoyed follower growth rates between 2-20% over the past twelve months (Whiskey brands like Jack Daniels UK, Highlandpark or Glenfiddich saw a more stable 7-8%). On YouTube the spirits leaderboard is even more distinct. Bombay Sapphire’s and Gordon’s Gin’s channels are among the top 5 UK spirits channels (next to Bacardi, Jägermeister & Grey Goose as of  Feb 2017).  Brand channelsTotal uploaded video views Bombay Sapphire 9.7M Bacardi UK 3.7M Jägermeister UK 2.1M Gordon’s Gin 1.4M Grey Goose UK 1.3M With 30% of all bottles sold in 2016 in the 12 weeks prior to New Year, the festive season is crucial for success in the spirits industry. In the same period, online retailer “Not on the Highstreet” announced that searches for “gin products” were up 31% compared to 2015. This doesn’t translate as markedly in social. Volumes between October and December have increased by only 2% compared to July – September. In fact we saw the spring period (Apr-Jun), driven by gin product promotions and World Gin Day to be most busy in terms of social volumes. However, the love of gin spilled over on search data: the level of interest for “gin gifts” and “gin cocktails” has quadrupled in the past 5 years. Search volumes start increasing end of October and peak mid/ end December (see graph below). Interesting behavioural point is how “gin cocktails” are following “gin gift” search trends. Are we seeing a “Ginsanity” revival from back in the 17th century? The combination of search and social surges demonstrates people have both intent and expression: they’re looking to acquire information as well as showcase their own identity. That’s a potent (forgive the pun) combination we’ll be exploring further across March. Fun Fact: The gin in our tonic was first used to flavour the taste of medicinal quinine (a cure for malaria) – known today as tonic water. More history? The Gin craze in England started in the 17th century when King William of Orange stopped French brandy imports by dropping taxation and licensing on UK distillation, whilst raising taxes on imported foreign spirits. In 1690 the monopoly of the London Guild of Distillers was dissolved and Gin consumption saw a stiff increase: Gingerbread vendors gave Londoners a new reason to get sipping during the famous Frost Fairs on the frozen River Thames by selling cups of gin. In the following years “Ginsanity” became a bottomless habit. The 1736 Gin Act aimed to regulate this relentless gin drinking. One of the most famous illustrations of the evils of gin-drinking in this period is Hogarth’s “Gin Lane” . #gin #ginandtonic #socialtrends #trends

Great stories rarely begin with “He opened the spreadsheet…”. Jake Steadman, who leads international research at Twitter, sees a different world – one where a 21st century fairytale might be powered by R, SQL and visualisation. Data and story telling might be less alien than you realised. Data and research jobs used to be seen as the preserve of the geek. Hard-working, well meaning individuals who prepared the admittedly important, but rarely consulted stacks of documents every marketing and customer service team commissioned but rarely utilised. Its safe to say Jake doesn’t fit the traditional image – a sharp dresser who wouldn’t look out of place as a Head of Brand, he wears his computer science degree lightly. Having begun in market research roles, he was one of the pioneers for serious brand social data use during his time at O2. Then again, perhaps he is simply the face of an evolving research industry. Social media exploded the potential scope and applicability of communications skills, and the same can be said of research. With more easily-accessible data, at far lower-cost, research has become more prevalent than ever before. Yet it’s much less frequently presented by someone who designates themselves as a research professional. Steadman has the answer to this – story telling. “If I were advising the 22 year old me on what to do with their career, I’d tell them there are 3 types of people in research.” “First there are the data scientists, the people mining the ever growing and complicated data sets available to us. They’re a vital part of the industry, and for me are most powerful when partnered with qualitative ethnographers to bring out the texture and contrast of a story. “The second group are the aforementioned ethnographers. The more data we have the greater need there is to add a human layer to our analysis. I see more and more qual, or high-quality ethnography, than ever before. The point between these poles, general panel research, is being challenged. “Third is where I would tell 22 year old me to focus: data storytellers. It represents a critical point, as tech evolves, and we move away from 100 slide PowerPoints that no-one listens to. How we extract an actionable narrative, and convince an audience, becomes key if we are to add value to organisations. This is ultimately the purpose of research – to help decision makers make decisions.” Powerful stuff, and a reflection of the unique perspective you get working at organisations (O2 and Twitter) which sit at a unique point in history in fuelling the explosion of human communication, and therefore opinion sharing, through mobile data channels. Unsurprisingly, he sees further yet for social data to go “it remains a big untapped opportunity for brands. At a micro-level, the ability to personalise experiences, and at aggregate level drawing large scale insights to spot opportunities and trends” What about the surprises in the evolution of social media, to date? “There are lots. Sheer scale aside, social media has been truly transformative for the way brands communicate with their customers. Customer service has fundamentally changed, for example. And 15 years ago who would have predicted that brands would be using custom emoji’s or gifs?”. Much of this can be drawn together in where he sees brands deploying social data, and social media more broadly, doing well: “Proper audience understanding, grasping opportunities, then empowering teams.” It sounds like a powerful story, alright. You’ll also note that none of this conversation relied on statistics for impact. Where traditionally the route to being a CMO has been where that organisation’s power lies (P&L or brand), perhaps the architects of next are as likely to be those with the data answers, who can tell the stories well. If you want to get ahead, read/do: Top Twitter follow: @getinthesea Top Instagram follow: montypearmain Top blog: I read MediaWatch on football365.com religiously Productive habit: I really love email. I’m a professional emailer. Unproductive habit: @sproutsteadman & @beansteadman tend to get in the way of productivity. Favourite brand: Brands that challenge and disrupt their industry. And John Lewis. I’m a sucker for John Lewis. #ArchitectsofNext #interview #Twitter

We’re here to bring together the architects of what comes next – and our people are at the heart of that. We’re growing fast, and looking to expand the team. You’d be joining a fresh consultancy which is pioneering new approaches, and have the opportunity to work closely with the founders. We’re looking for people who are positive, fast-paced and curious about the way people interact, and want to be in an environment focussed on optimising their performance, to build what comes next. We’re looking to fill three positions so get in touch if any of them sound like a good fit for you. What are the roles? Social research & data analyst 6 month internship Influence executive Tell me more! Want to join us? Then send your CV our way with which role you’re applying for. Social research & data analyst The analyst will be working across existing and new clients, driving the detailed identification, interpretation and application of patterns of behaviour, intent and language to determine actionable insights. You’ll be early in your career, and hungry to learn and do standout work which shapes what comes next, for all of us. Responsibilities: Compiling research reports Supporting developing insight and data products Supporting preparation of client and prospect materials Client consultancy and presentations Wider business support and involvement – it’s a startup environment, so no consecutive days are predictable! Content creation for OneFifty marketing and social channels Skills: Strong quantitative and qualitative research skills Spreadsheet & database proficiency Understanding of Boolean search Knowledge of major social media platforms and underpinning frameworks Experience with APIs Experience/proficiency with some of R / Python is useful Experience/knowledge of some of social science / social network research / natural language processing techniques is useful Competitive salary and benefits package. You can apply through LinkedIn or email us. Full time paid 6 month internship The intern will be working across existing and prospective clients, supporting a range of activities, from research, to data gathering, to strategy development, alongside operational support in business operations such as marketing and business development. You’ll be looking to explore your career, and hungry to learn and experience standout work which shapes what comes next, for all of us. Responsibilities: Research Development of business materials Operational business support Data gathering & analysis Learning Skills: Quantitative and qualitative research skills Interest and experience with social media platforms Strong communication skills Influence executive The Influence Exec will be developing the processes and platform allowing those with true influence to better work with organisations. You’ll be working on the frontline of developing new models of digital interactions, benefitting the content creating community, commentators and organisations alike. Part product manager, part relationship manager, part researcher, you’ll never be bored. This role is ideally suited to someone who is a social creator and wants the opportunity to work in the same field. You’ll be looking for the career of tomorrow, and hungry to learn and do standout work which shapes what comes next, for all of us. Responsibilities: Product development Developing relationships with potential users, from organisations and creator communities Supporting preparation of client, user, and prospect materials Client consultancy and presentations Wider business support and involvement – it’s a startup environment, so no consecutive days are predictable! Content creation for OneFifty marketing and social channels Skills/experience: Experience creating social media content, in a personal capacity Strong communication and organisation skills Sociable – networking and business development will be important Knowledge of major social media platforms and their content and user ecosystems Experience with APIs is useful Experience/proficiency with Final Cut / PhotoShop is useful Experience/knowledge of HTML / CSS is useful Competitive salary and benefits package. #dataanalyst #hiring #internship #influenceexecutive #roles #jobs #workforus

Earlier this year, we developed research around Instagram Trends for 2019, which we’ve since been presenting across our client roster and friends of OneFifty. In this, we outline the importance of Instagram as a social media channel, platform trends for this year, and reflect on consumer behaviour trends that emerged towards the end of last year, into this year. At the end of every quarter, we’ll be marking our own homework, by assessing the performance of our predicted trends. So, which trends have kicked off since January? 1) We predicted that rumours would come true and Instagram Shopping – which previously included a tag showing the item name, price and link to the site to buy – would further develop into a standalone app, or integrate an in-app payment feature What happened? Instagram evolved its shopping feature on 19th March, with the release of Checkout, exclusively rolling out an in-app payment feature for its shoppable posts across 23 cosmetic and fashion brands in the US. Sellers will have to pay a fee and at the moment, it’s possible to buy one item per transaction at a time. What does this mean? Well, for me personally, this is not good news for my bank balance, but joking aside, Facebook’s step forward in its mission to create all-encompassing in-app services across its product suite, much like Tencent’s WeChat, is exciting. This particular move from Instagram, towards creating a near-seamless and personalised consumer shopping journey – aided by a combination of its algorithm and influencers serving visual inspiration to potential consumers – could be a game changer for eCommerce. It’s early days, but it’ll be interesting to see how the platform will further develop around Checkout. Will an enhanced customer service infrastructure be developed, enabling consumers and businesses to have two-way conversations at ease (and in-app)? How will it rollout amongst smaller retailers; could sellers fees and the limit of one transaction per customer be an obstacle? And finally, will retailers want Instagram to be the chief owner of their customers’ data that’s collected from these transactions? Regardless of where it goes from here, the app’s suitability to close the path-to-purchase loop is something that rang clear last week in stats (see below) disclosed at Retail Week Live by Instagram & it’s also something that Deutsche Bank is predicting will add $10bn revenue for Facebook in 2021 83% of Instagram users discover new products on the app 81% of Instagram users use it to research new products/services 80% of Instagram users use it to decide whether to buy products/services 2) #picsoritdidnthappen: we predicted that businesses would continue to create visual experiences that’ll spark consumers to document for the ‘gram What happened? This is one trend that’s here to stay. The power of Instagram to aesthetically motivate consumers to visit destinations that lifestyle influencers are bringing to their feeds is evident from particular destinations repeatedly cropping up, ranging from tourist destinations, like Porto’s Carmo Church murals, through to the latest brunch spots in London. One business we called out in our trends research at the start of the year was EL&N, regularly featured as one of London’s most Instagrammable cafés – both in the press and through its regular appearance on the Instagram feed itself. The café is instantly recognisable for its indoor neon signs, flower feature walls and plush pink furnishings; the Insta-appeal of which has helped to not only drive footfall for the café owing to its expansion at the end of 2018, but to also boost its Instagram audience by 29% in the first three months of 2019. EL&N and other trendy brunch spots aren’t in this alone though; the high street is literally blooming, with pubs, restaurants, galleries, cafes, and independent shops joining in on the craze with flower or fairy light facades and foliage interiors. To see for yourself, check out one of the 68K posts using the hashtag #chasing_facades. Here are some of my recent favourites: The Ivy, Chelsea Garden, shot by @crazycatladyldn Les Senteurs perfumery, shot by @hernamewascharlie Saint Aymes, shot by @bei.bei.wei Maddox Gallery, shot by @elensham Gloria, shot by @lukecabrahams What does this mean? A visually rich, ‘grammable interior or facade is a surefire way to encourage users to visit, document and share their experiences – in-so-doing generating exposure and reach for businesses. We all know that Instagram rarely lines up with reality though, so just make sure the customer experience matches up with expectations; I’ve already experienced or heard of others’ experiences whereby the reality didn’t match up, both in visual terms and customer experience and quality terms. The #picsoritdidnthappen trend in consumer behaviour is a business opportunity in itself though. Tourists are starting to booking professional photographers to capture photos of them standing in front of cities’ most instagrammable spots, while tour operators detail “photos from the week” as one of the benefits of booking a holiday with them. 3) We said that #newyearsameme / #newyearoldme at the turn of the year was indicative of a wider trend that would follow into 2019, through content promoting body neutrality and an “authentic” self, as opposed to “aspirational” self (aka real life vs. the life you never have) What happened? Our trends at the beginning of the year mentioned that mum influencers, together with Jameela Jamil in particular, are leading a stand against body shaming. In Q1, we’ve continued to see Jameela Jamil call out individuals through her personal instagram and @i_weigh movement – particularly the Kardashians – in her Stories and posts. This has seen #iweigh increase in mentions by 31%, while #bodyneutrality has grown by 16%. Jameela has taken this movement through to IGTV, where she’s shared a 30 min interview with Sam Smith about his personal journey with his own body image, generating 82K views – and he has since opened up more about this on his own Insta feed. The mentality around body neutrality has also been reflected by media outlets adopting a similar tone, such as @Refinery29, sharing a recent meme comparing summer body vs. winter body (i.e. the exact same body), together with an image of “things you don’t see in mainstream porn” recently doing the rounds across mum influencers’ accounts in particular. What does this mean? Consumers feel empowered to share their real selves on Instagram, sharing their own body image struggles in an effort to normalise depictions and conversations around these. They look up to individuals who do so, which is something worth considering when planning partnerships with influencers; how authentic is that individual to your target audience? It’s not a new behaviour, but consumers want to see honest content and won’t be afraid to call bullshit on anything that doesn’t meet this expectation. Before you go… which of 2018’s trends are still going strong? 1) 2019, the year of the vegan, has been further demonstrated by the fact that #veganuary2019 mentions climbed by 22% in Q1, while food outlets continue to tap into the trend, either through partnerships with influencers to curate vegan menus, or through new product releases, the most notable so far being the Greggs #vegansausageroll, garnering almost 6K mentions on Instagram. This is in line with the wider sustainability trend we’re seeing on Instagram, particularly focused on cutting down plastic use & dressing “smarter” and more “simply” by creating a capsule wardrobe of pieces that will last years. This has been seen through the @collyertwins sharing ideas for everyday looks and the like of @emmahoareau & our very own @natalieglaze talking about her style and approach towards sustainable fashion 2) #fortnite mentions have risen by 26% since January, partly a result of players sharing photo screenshots or video clips from the game, together with related tweets, and also partly a result of shots from the game being repurposed into memes for the ‘gram – another ongoing craze 3) #ASMR continues to grow, with dedicated accounts and content creators on Instagram. The hashtag increased in usage by 10% since January, to reach 6.4M posts. Food-related ASMR seems to be the most popular, with over half a million posts tagged #ASMReating. Instagram or not, the trend is here to stay and brands continue to use it as a means to reign viewers into a focused state, with Michelob’s advert using ASMR to create the antithesis of “usual” Superbowl halftime ads and in-so-doing receiving 14.7M views on YouTube so far If you have any questions, or would like us to present our Instagram research to you and your team, please contact hello@onefiftyconsultancy.com #Instagram #trends

We mentioned in our previous blog post that September is a big month for upgrades, and that’s partly because this month is traditionally the time when Apple brings out its new iPhone. Typically, iPhones are now searched for on Google 1.7x more in September than they are in March (with Samsung phones searched for 1.2x more). Phone contracts are also searched for more in September than in any other month (1.22x more in 2016). Apple have definitely taken the lead in sending the internet mad with their release of not one but two new iPhones, but there’s been a good amount of momentum building around the phone upgrade conversation after Samsung’s release of the Galaxy S8 back in July. But if – like myself and a sizeable, outraged section of the internet – you’re not keen on the idea of spending £1000 on a new phone, is there anything to be gained by hopping on the September-upgrade bandwagon? There’s no denying that that new phone releases massively drive interest in the possibility of upgrading. On the graph above depicting Google searches for ‘upgrade’ in 2016, you can see clear spikes in interest for the Samsung and Apple releases; in terms of search volume, they’re head and shoulders above the rest, as shown in the second graph below. Look a little closer at the data, though, and you’ll see much of the hype isn’t actually generated by phone companies themselves but by telecommunication and media companies. EE, Vodafone, O2, Sky, Virgin and Carphone Warehouse were all amongst the top 10 related queries for ‘upgrade’ – not even ‘phone upgrade’ or ‘smartphone upgrade’ – showing that these companies benefit greatly from the traffic surrounding the release of a new model from a major brand. Interestingly, our previous hypothesis that phone upgrading is part of a larger trend of renewal would seem to be backed up by Google Correlations – searches for ‘upgrade’ correlates with searches for television packages, new computer software and even house-hunting. Moving over to social networks, it’s obvious that the September chatter surrounding upgrades has permeated beyond smartphones. From fashion to lifestyle, motivational speaking and beyond, upgrade (and anti-upgrade) Twitter buzz has well and truly taken off. That said, discussion of handsets still dominates the conversation – if I’m still on the lookout for a new phone, what should I pick? If Apple dominated on Google, it’s even more ubiquitous on Twitter. UK discussion of ‘iPhone’ in the past 90 days is almost 10x higher than discussion of ‘Samsung’, their next highest competitor. The iPhone’s status as a driver of smartphone innovation and a luxury item makes it a popular topic amongst ordinary users and tech enthusiasts alike, and its yearly September launch was nothing short of a social media storm, with mentions on Twitter soaring to almost 3x their usual volume. In comparison, brands with a smaller UK market share such as LG, Huawei, HTC, OnePlus, Sony, Motorola and  BlackBerry generated nowhere near as much chatter. Even the brands with the highest number of mentions in the last 90 days – Sony and OnePlus – were performing approximately 3x worse than Samsung. Most brands experienced a significant boost in mentions around their most recent product launch – from tech bloggers in the lead-up, and then from prospective and new buyers in the immediate aftermath – but interestingly, many brands other than Apple (Motorola, BlackBerry, LG and Huawei) also saw slightly above-average Twitter chatter during the period surrounding the iPhone launch, as users compared and contrasted the new iPhone with existing brands. Many ordinary buyers bemoaned the price of new top-end phones, whilst others used language associated with loyalty and a continuing relationship with their brand of choice: words like ‘tempt’, ‘betrayal’, ‘loyalist’ and ‘sticking with’ featured regularly in tweets. Both familiarity and financial gain probably play a part in this trend, as customers often get discounts for trading in their older handsets when a new model comes out.     So, should I  follow the trends and upgrade in September? Well, perhaps yes – there’s a lot of good new phones out there, and if I’m trading in an old one, it might not even break the bank. But if I decide on a new iPhone, I might need to get ready to live on baked beans and toast ‘til Christmas.

It’s fair to say I haven’t been on a bike – properly – for a few years. Ok, make that over 20. Apparently I was never that interested as a kid and as an adult I haven’t had much reason to re-engage. Until February, when our social trend was cycling. We’ve lived the trend across the team in various ways, and mine was to get back on the bike. I’ve watched cycling become more prevalent amongst friends and work colleagues for the last few years, and I have to say I get pretty envious that they can just jump on a bike and zip across town. It’s more often than not the most efficient way of getting around (I always have to set off earlier to meetings), it’s also cheap, better for you and you get out in the fresh air (well, you get outside, which is always a bonus when you run your own office-based business!). So I was keen to get back on those two wheels and join the cycling masses. Now, all this sounds quite easy. Get a Boris bike, hit the road, job done. What’s more, I do a lot of other sport, I go spinning at least once a week and I’m not particularly nervous about trying new activities that involve speed. But the thought of getting on something with two wheels, in London, with buses (and taxis, and cars, and motorcyclists, and other cyclists) terrifies me. So I slightly copped out (before you say it) and started with something a little less daunting – a bike ride in the comfort of the New Forest. Roads were involved… but so were some very nice tracks. The perfect reintroduction. That said, I think unpredictable horses and rather large potholes were very similar to weaving in and out of London traffic, and negotiating other moving objects. The guy who I rented the bike off clearly wasn’t convinced I knew how the gears worked (I pretty much did…), so insisted on showing me. He also suggested a mountain bike over a road bike (“much easier to ride”). I then set off, with a chaperone in case I came into any ‘trouble’. I’d like to start by saying I didn’t fall off, at any point. Evidence right here: It did however become quite clear to me what I need to learn/overcome, should I hit the streets of London any time soon: Confidence on the bike. I was very happy going down a straight track with no one else for miles around. I got up some speed and started to test some sharper steering (around previously mentioned potholes). As soon as a car, gate or pedestrian got in my sights, however, slight panic and wobble ensued. Spatial awareness needs work. Any narrow parts (a meter-wide bridge in this case) left me wobbling all over the place. Not great. Zipping between vehicles is an anticipated problem. I can’t ride and navigate. No women-jokes please, I’m perfectly capable of navigating but it was all a bit much trying to read a map, relearn how to ride a bike and be aware of my surroundings, safely. What to do with cars. Two issues here, firstly turning around to look at where cars were brought about an unnerving wobble (for me and said driver). Secondly, I never did my cycling proficiency so I’m not entirely sure of the rules of the roads. Do you stick your whole arm out when turning?! How do you know if a vehicle if going to suddenly overtake you while you’re turning?! Turning… That was another thing. Case in point here – a particularly dodgy navigation of a junction! I stop miles away from the actual junction and the restart is, well, wobbly… But just look at that solid arm movement. Ahem. It’s SO dirty, I was utterly filthy by the time I’d finished – legs, arms, face, hair, all covered in mud. I’d have to buy a whole wardrobe dedicated to cycling because clearly you can’t wear your work clothes while riding. I now have full admiration for those who ride in London. I’m a long way off that but I loved the freedom of just jumping on a bike and getting to where I needed to be. And you get all the great exercise endorphins – which are definitely not available on the Northern line… I will definitely be cycling again in the New Forest, just look at this view. But I do have a big jump to take that bike to London’s roads. The thought of trying to navigate, not being run over or thrown off my bike AND being safe is still terrifying. But maybe, with a chaperone, I could venture onto one of the cycle highways. And, as part of this journey, I’ve discovered TfL have a great initiative, which aims to get people like me feeling more confident on a bike – hosting free adult cycling training in boroughs across the city. And now we’re offering a free bike to everyone at OneFifty, as part of our benefits package, I really have run out of excuses. After all, if over 600K Londoners can do it, surely I can! #learningtoride #commuting #cyclists #socialtrends #cycling #trends

As Francis of Assissi once wisely said, ‘it is in giving that we receive’. A lovely, wholesome thought. As we’ve already mentioned earlier this month, social media users seem to prefer talking about gifts they’re excited to give as opposed to ones they receive. But with all the expectation surrounding Christmas gifting, does the excitement of receiving gifts match up to the excitement of giving them? Ultimately, their overall success boils down to the reception they receive on The Big Day. In our previous blog post, we looked at some of last year’s most talked about presents on social in the build-up to Christmas Day. These were anything to do with Hygge, virtual reality, fitness tech, and gift subscriptions. But how did these gifts fare with their recipients, and which presents were most praised? We examined the social conversation around these gifts from 25th December 2016 in the UK, narrowing this down to conversation specifically coming from recipients, or the reactions of recipients as recorded by others. Gift subscriptions were universally well received, with 100% of the conversation being positive*. Magazine subscriptions were the most common ones mentioned, and particularly the New Yorker. This was closely followed by virtual reality, of which 93.9% of the conversation was positive. Sony’s PS4 VR was mentioned the most, although Samsung Gear also featured within the conversation. Noticeably absent was the Oculus Rift headset, but with Google searches dropping by 368% since January 2016, this isn’t so surprising. In last year’s competition to be the best VR headset, it seems Sony won this fair and square. 93.3% of fitness tech mentions were positive, with Fitbit leading the conversation (62%). 100% of tweets were from women, and the top emojis used all reflected the positive responses of users: 🏃 (20%) and 😁 (10%). In last place falls the gifting theme of Hygge, of which 82.1% of the conversation was positive. Hygge seemed to produce a love/hate effect, with users either relishing their Hygge-themed gifts, or being relieved they didn’t receive them at all… Following in this vein, we’ve also found the most badly received Christmas present of 2016. With 97% of mentions either consisting of negative or sarcastic comments, we would suggest that a Lynx gift set seems to be the worst present you can possibly give to someone this year. Don’t say we didn’t warn you… * Based only on either positive or negative tweets, and excluding neutral tweets/tweets not specifically relating to personal reactions and opinions #christmas #gifts

That’s right, it’s our 4th birthday. Four years of using data and models of human behaviour to drive purposeful digital interactions with the people who matter. Four years of doing the work which comes next. We want to say a big thank you to everyone who has been a fellow Architect of Next and been part of our journey so far – team, clients, friends, family. This only represents a slice of those people but we wanted to recognise the brands and organisations we’ve worked with to create what comes next, since January 2016. Now, we don’t want to go on about all the great things over the last four years, so we’ll keep it to some of our highlights from the last 12 months… Recognised as one of the top 100 hottest startups in the UK for the second year running. It’s the one award we always wanted when we set up four years ago Created an interactive ‘choose your own adventure’ Facebook canvas experience to generate leads for Zopa’s ISA product – which sold out early as a result Helped [Yellow Tail] become the fastest growing top 10 branded wine by reaching new audiences through selected influencers, behavioural-led content and paid media Created an Instagram filter for sprout lovers and haters for Toby Carvery – because while Christmas only starts when they’re back on the menu Toby knows they’re not for everyone Hosted an event for London’s scale-ups at Wood Wharf with Twitter VP, EMEA, Bruce Daisley on The Joy of Work. In advance of any business being able to move there, it helped show what the area will facilitate and the community it will generate. Got under the skin of TikTok, as it sees serious user growth and a similar cult-usage which marked out Twitter and Vine in their early days. We launched both OneFifty and Toby Carvery channels (are you following us? OneFifty Consultancy). Identified customer segments and journeys to create a digital strategy that drove online sales for houseof, a new e-commerce brand who are tearing up the UK lighting market Hosted an event on digital campaigning in a post Cambridge Analytica world, alongside Theo Bertram, former adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. We discussed what really happens behind the scenes: the tactics, targeting and tantrums that may (and may not) impact Britain’s voters every day Worked on the General Election micro targeting marginal seats, via social, for Advance, who want to deliver genuine change and reform our political system Research we’ve done We’re all about data and we’ve done a number of research projects this year, separate to client work. Shout if you’d like to see any of the below and haven’t already. What scale up and tech driven business conversations looked like in 2019 on social, including how they have (and haven’t) changed across the year, and signals for 2020 Kings Cross facial recognition reaction: who cares? It caused a media furore but how big was the issue, for whom, and what (if any) lessons can be learned from social media? Burning issue: Amazon fires and how awareness has spread. We felt it had some interesting characteristics in terms of how, and why, the conversation developed online, and the inter-relationship between online communities and traditional media. What are the rising and falling trends on Instagram when it comes to style? Is the flat lay in or out? What comes next? We already have a number of exciting things planned for 2020 but our overiding goal remains the same: Do the work which comes next. That means challenging ourselves and our partners. BUT to make this all happen we’re kicking off by… Adding more great architects of next to the team (let us know if you recommend anyone, we’re looking at all levels) Hosting a TikTok breakfast workshop at the beginning of February – what is it, why you should care and how it works. Let us know if you’re interested Doing Valentine’s Day (ok, the 13th but close enough) a little differently this year – we’re hosting an evening drinks event which is fuelled by what the UK loves on social – think drinks, food, games, music. More details to follow soon Want to be part of what comes next? Keep reading and sharing – we’ve got a weekly newsletter with our pick of stories from the wider world about the changing social and data landscape. If you don’t get it, let us know and we’ll add you to the list In case you’ve missed it, Alex sends out his Think/Again email every weekend on interesting things he’s read that you might’ve missed Say happy birthday (we won’t lie, we like it) on social media Finally, if you’re looking at how you get better content in 2020, look no further than our sister company, Rogue Ponies. It brings together content-hungry brands with talented creators to produce more effective, efficient and social-appropriate videos and photography. We’ve matched up amazing creators with brands such as Staropramen, London Coffee Festival, Snazeroo, The Royal Mint, Aspalls and Brew Tea. Here’s to what comes next. Katie & Alex #birthday

Architect of Next Sarah gives her top productivity tips (and they’re probably not what you think they are…) It’s been almost a year and a half since I joined OneFifty and since then I’ve learned a lot – not just about data science, social media and models of human behaviour, but also about how to get through the day in the most productive way possible. Don’t worry, this isn’t a motivational blog post about time management or holding standing meetings; instead it’s my (not so) secret tips that will save precious minutes throughout the day. 1. The gmail unsend feature Also known as the best invention ever, the gmail unsend feature is quite possibly the best thing you can possibly install as soon as you set up your email. We’ve all had that sinking feeling the moment you press send and realise you’ve forgot to attach a document or spelled a client’s name wrong (the worst!). Well stress no more – this nifty little feature can be found in gmail under settings > general > Undo Send and allows you to cancel sending for up to 30 seconds after you’ve pressed send. Lifesaver. 2. Emoji keyboard When you work in social media you’re going to need quick and easy access to emojis. Fact. So next time you’re typing on your laptop, hold command, control and space bar (Windows key and the period button on Windows users) to bring up your emoji keyboard and easily drop them into that killer tweet 🔥 3. Quickly reduce PDF MBs PDFs are great for many things, but such greatness often results in huge file sizes, which can be particularly annoying if you’re sending it by email or basically trying to do anything with the PDF other than printing. The productivity hack? Open up Adobe Acrobat > file > save as other > ‘reduced size pdf’ and voila. Inbox friendly PDF in 30 seconds. 4. Do not disturb Presenting to clients can be stressful enough without a slack message from your colleague popping up asking if you fancy a coffee or a todoist notification appearing on screen reminding you about a report that’s due. And even if you’re not screen-sharing, having notifications appear when you’re trying to take notes can be distracting. So the minute you step into your next client meeting, click the little button in the top right hand corner of your Macbook screen and select ‘do not disturb’ to stop anything popping up. On windows this feature is called ‘Focus assist’. So helpful. 5. Choose your own equipment Kudos to Liv for this tip – one thing that really helps you be more productive is having the right equipment to work from. That’s why at OneFifty, we let you choose between a Windows laptop or Macbook to work from, so you can work with what you feel best using. Most people tend to choose a Macbook, but new joiners always have the choice – so use it! We’ve also got access to dual screens, iMacs and a plethora of programs and tools to try out and find the right thing that works for you. So, ready to get productive? Give these a go and let us know how you get on… #productivity #team